[U] Here Are Bob’s Guesses — At Next Three Quarters Of GAAP LPS…

[UPDATE: I’ve floated this back to the top, as it sets the tone for the rest of the year 2017 — it was originally published on May 11, 2017.

In addition, immediately before the stockholders’ meeting, the long-time full board member, and now CFO, Mr. David Mullen bought a paltry 20,000 shares on the NASDAQ, for a little over $2.57 a share. Yawn.

Nothing of note occurred at the stockholders’ meeting. Given developments on Thursday afternoon, we may run silent here for a bit. We shall see.

End, updated portion.]

I’ll add Lake Street’s when they are updated, but Lake Street will almost certainly be… too rosy.

Bob is on completely on fire, these last several days years:

“…Just looked at the conference call transcript.

Q2 will evidence the low point of their seasonality and just as they’ve missed on every objective, this likely means a fairly disastrous quarter, which, as they have a difficult time throttling expenses, means a big cash burn. Since it’s now known that they adjusted the contract terms for a customer, look for other customers to ask for a similar deal, further eroding the top line.

In Q1, they lost $5M on $11M in revenues, burning in the neighborhood of $4M in cash (all the financing translations take more time to sort out than is worth the effort — ballpark is close enough).

In Q2, they’ll likely generate $10.2M in revenues and lose $5.8M, burning $4.8M in cash. This revenue projection (which could be a best case) — leads to a $0.22 per share GAAP loss….

Always use GAAP numbers in evaluating a company like MATR. EBITDA is for suckers as that depreciation represents true cost of real cash money spent in the past and is only relevant for one-time events that distort the quarter to quarter comparison. Non-cash compensation is a real economic loss to existing shareholders.

Going forward:

– Q3: $10.6M in rev, loss of $5.5M, 19.8 cents per share loss
– Q4: $11M in rev, loss of $5.4M, 19.3 cents per share loss

By September, they’re going to need to find yet more cash to keep the party going….”

Me? I think so, too. Thanks, man.

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2 thoughts on “[U] Here Are Bob’s Guesses — At Next Three Quarters Of GAAP LPS…”

  1. For you investors, I want you to think about who has made the more accurate analysis and predictions about MATR over the past few years. Was it management with their glorious predictions of greatness? Was it the junior analysts who are stuck with following the company and basically regurgitate what management tells them? Or was it me? Someone who has zero inside information and holds no interest in the company and never will? Just sayin…

    Oh, and if you think MATR is a great buying opportunity at $2.70/share, you’ll love it at $1.50 when they have to go back for more dough and have to sell in the neighborhood of 10 million shares to raise $15M more. Serious dilution time.

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